Morning review：
Dear friends, I am Don Adam Perera, the founder and chief quantitative analyst at New World Asset Management. I am very excited to look forward with each of you to this week’s major economic data and financial reports. Together, through precise quantitative analysis and in-depth market research, we will explore the trends in the stock market and seek out opportunities that can provide us with stable wealth growth.
This week’s key economic data and significant events to focus on:
1.Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell issued the strongest signal yet for a rate cut, which had a positive impact on the entire investment market and sparked optimistic sentiment. This week, we will continue to monitor whether this optimism can be sustained.
- Tensions in the Middle East have escalated once again, with Israel sounding intensive air raid alarms and declaring a state of emergency for the next 48 hours. This geopolitical tension undoubtedly adds to global market uncertainty, thereby intensifying risk aversion. Against this backdrop, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, means that the gold sector is likely to experience a sustained upward trend.
3.As earnings season draws to a close, NVDA is set to release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes this Wednesday. As a stock that represents the trends of the era, its earnings release concerns not only the company’s own operational status but also impacts the global technology and the entire financial industry’s supply chain. This NVDA earnings report has already become a focal point of the market.
4.This week, we also need to focus closely on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The data from this index will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially concerning decisions about the extent and path of rate cuts.
This week, we will optimize our investment portfolio in a timely manner based on changes in data to respond to market fluctuations.
Now, we will focus on the performance of stocks in our investment portfolio, tailoring strategies to fit different market cycles. For our long-term strategy, we are focused on NVDA, a leading stock in the artificial intelligence sector; for our mid-term strategy, our focus is on NEM in the gold sector; and for our short-term strategy, we are looking at TSLA in the new energy vehicle sector.
From the current market analysis, NVDA’s stock price has successfully broken above the upper edge of the downward channel, marking a successful transition from a previous downtrend to an uptrend. This shift brings us the opportunity for a new unilateral trend, with a strong support level clearly established below, providing a solid foundation for NVDA’s upward movement.
Additionally, the market’s focus will be on the NVDA second-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled to be released after the market closes this Wednesday. Considering the potential impact of this significant event, we have chosen to temporarily hold and wait, allowing us to make a more informed investment decision once the earnings are disclosed.
Currently, TSLA’s stock price is at a very critical point on the lower edge of its upward channel, a moment when we need to make a directional decision. The overall trend performance indicates that whenever TSLA’s price pulls back to this strong support line, it often presents a very ideal buying opportunity.
Considering the current market uncertainty and the upcoming market dynamics, we will adopt this strategy to better assess the market situation and make more precise investment decisions.
Therefore, we choose to hold temporarily and continue to monitor TSLA’s price movements, adjusting our investment strategy based on further market developments.
Regarding the gold sector’s NEM, we see that its overall trend is very strong, having accumulated considerable upward momentum within its ascending channel. Currently, NEM is at a critical point within this rising channel. Once it successfully breaks through the upper edge of the ascending channel, we can anticipate triggering even stronger upward momentum, bringing significant potential for further increases.
Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East have intensified market risk aversion, providing more catalysts for the rise of traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Therefore, we can reasonably anticipate that as safe-haven demands continue to be released, both NEM and the overall gold sector will sustain their upward trends.
Based on our comprehensive analysis of NVDA, TSLA, and NEM, the current market performance of these three stocks demonstrates the value of continuing to hold them, with the expectation of yielding higher profit returns. For those investors who already own these stocks, it is advised to continue being patient and wait for greater returns.
At the same time, for those who have not yet entered the market, the current market conditions and stock trends indicate that it is a very suitable time to participate. When engaging in trading these stocks, be sure to manage your positions well to handle potential market fluctuations.
Later, I will focus on sharing “Trading Strategies for Volatile Stock Markets” and “How to Predict Stock Market Performance by Judging Changes in Investor Sentiment.” This knowledge is extremely valuable for every investor, as it can help us make more precise decisions in the market.
Please all friends pay attention to the community’s shares, see you later.
Closing commentary：
Dear friends, I am Don Adam Perera. I’m very happy to be with all of you in this community. In the face of the stock market’s intense volatility, we confront this brief period of retracement risk together, discuss the future trends of the stock market, and optimize our investment portfolios.
1.How is the overall performance of the stock market, and what is my view on it?
2.How are the stocks in our investment portfolio currently performing, and what should our approach be?
3.How can we assess changes in market investor sentiment, and what is its relationship with stock indices?
In the investment world, every fluctuation in the market is an opportunity for us to grow, and each retracement harbors the seeds of future profits. Our gathering in this community is not just about earning short-term profits, but about achieving our long-term investment goals and dreams. Therefore, in the coming period, I will share some core analytical methods and investment strategies with you all to help better understand market dynamics and make more scientific and rational investment decisions.
First, let’s focus on the performance of the three major stock indices:
1.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which covers many representative blue-chip stocks, primarily oriented towards traditional industries and consumer goods companies. Today, after reaching a historical high, the index experienced a brief retracement, indicating that the market still holds a positive evaluation and expectation for the stocks of traditional industries and consumer goods companies.
2.The Nasdaq index, which primarily represents stocks in the technology sector. Although today’s price shows weak and volatile consolidation, it still remains near the strong trend line. This indicates that despite a brief pullback in the tech sector today, the overall strong trend has not changed, signaling that tech stocks are still worth our attention in the future.
3.The S&P 500 index, which includes multiple sectors with technology companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google holding significant weight. Today, the S&P 500 index also experienced volatility and consolidation at high levels, reflecting that a wide range of stocks in the market are undergoing fluctuations.
Although today we observed brief pullbacks in all three major stock indices, it’s important to recognize that these fluctuations are a normal part of market operations. The overall trend of the market has not changed and remains on a rebound trajectory.
In the investment market, severe price fluctuations are a very common occurrence. As investment guru Warren Buffett said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.” This is our golden rule for dealing with market volatility. Market risks often accumulate during rises, while opportunities often present themselves during declines.
When the market experiences a pullback, we should not simply follow the trend, but rather analyze market dynamics in depth, combining fundamental and technical analysis to clarify the true trend of the market. In such cases, price volatility is not just a symbol of risk, but also a signal of potential opportunities. We will not panic due to temporary price retracements; instead, we will look for more appropriate times and positions to enter the market.
In our investment portfolio, we currently hold NVDA, TSLA, and NEM. Based on recent market performance, these three stocks have mainly shown a volatile pattern, and their overall trends have not changed. I believe such market pullbacks provide us with a good opportunity to re-enter positions.
Regarding the specific analysis of NVDA, TSLA, and NEM, I plan to continue our in-depth discussion and sharing with everyone tomorrow.
For the remaining time, we will embark on an in-depth learning journey together.
In the complex and ever-changing world of investing, success depends not just on frequent trading, but more importantly, on continuous learning and strengthening of investment methods and skills while engaging in the market. Building and perfecting your own investment system through systematic learning and application is the cornerstone of enhancing our practical abilities.
Today, I want to focus on a crucial topic with all of you: how to discern changes in investor sentiment in the market. Investor sentiment is one of the key factors that influence the direction of stock indices. Accurately understanding and predicting market sentiment is extremely important for us to formulate investment strategies and forecast market trends.
Here, I will share with all of you a very useful benchmark—the VIX index, also known as the fear index. The VIX measures market expectations for volatility over the next 30 days and is calculated based on the trading prices of S&P 500 index options. When the VIX index rises, it indicates that the market expects increased risk and uncertainty, and investor sentiment tends towards panic; conversely, when the VIX index falls, it indicates that the market is stable and investor sentiment is more optimistic.
By analyzing the relationship between the VIX Index and stock indices, we can clearly see a negative correlation between them. This means that when the VIX Index rises, indicating increased market uncertainty and perceived risk, stock indices tend to fall; conversely, when the VIX Index falls, as market stability increases, stock indices usually rise.
Therefore, the VIX Index is an extremely important reference indicator, which not only helps us assess changes in investor sentiment but can also effectively predict stock market performance. It will become a key reference in our daily trading and investment decisions.
Today, I shared with you how to use the VIX Index to gain insights into market dynamics and investor sentiment. Going forward, we will use the performance of the VIX Index daily to help assess changes in investor sentiment and the behavior of stock indices. By understanding the performance of the VIX, we can more accurately gauge market trends and optimize our investment portfolios.
Dear friends, today’s session has come to an end, but our investment journey is far from over. Tomorrow, we will continue to explore the trajectories of the stock market together and persist in optimizing the stocks in our investment portfolio, seeking the best buying and selling points in fluctuating trends. See you tomorrow.